The more time I spend in the market, the more I realize something simple: opportunities don’t show up when everything looks perfect — they show up when people get uncomfortable. And right now, we’re in one of those stretches where discomfort is creating real chances for long-term investors.

This week, I kept coming back to one name that’s been sitting at levels we don’t see often: Nike ($NKE).

It’s not a flashy momentum trade. It’s not the hot AI play everyone’s talking about. It’s not even in a sector that gets a ton of attention right now. But sometimes the best opportunities come from stepping outside the noise and really paying attention to what the fundamentals are telling you.

Nike is one of those names.

One thing the market consistently struggles with is uncertainty. The second a company enters a transition phase or reports anything short of perfection, investors rush to the exits. Nike has been dealing with weaker guidance, leadership changes, and strategy shifts — all of which naturally create fear.

But here’s the key: uncertainty is not the same as decline.

Nike is not a broken company. Far from it. They’re one of the strongest consumer brands on the planet, with the balance sheet, cash flow, and global presence to shift direction without losing their identity or long-term value.

The market often overreacts to transitions. Investors get impatient, sentiment turns negative, and suddenly a great business gets priced like an average one.

That’s the moment long-term investors look for.

Let’s keep this simple.

Nike still has:

• A world-class brand
• Global distribution
• Pricing power
• Deep customer loyalty
• A strong balance sheet
• Leadership capable of making hard adjustments

Those things don’t disappear just because the company hit a rough patch. In fact, those strengths are exactly what give them the ability to fix what needs fixing.

Nike’s struggles right now are not structural—they’re cyclical and strategic. They have work to do, no question. But the foundation is still the foundation. And when you’re investing long term, the foundation is what matters.

At these levels, you're not paying for perfection. You’re paying for a high-quality company that’s temporarily out of favor. And historically, that’s where some of the best risk-adjusted opportunities come from.

Whenever a company as big as Nike goes through a reset, the market tends to act like the next decade is ruined. But look back at history:
Nike has gone through tough stretches before. Each time, they realigned, adapted, and came back stronger.

Great companies don’t stay down. They rebuild. And when the tide turns, it usually turns fast.

That’s why I’m paying close attention. The setup is classic long-term investing:

A great business, a temporary slowdown, a discounted price, and a clear path forward once execution improves.

This isn’t about predicting the exact bottom. It’s about recognizing when risk and reward shift in your favor.

And in my view, Nike is getting close to that point.

I’m not calling for an immediate turnaround. Nike still has decisions to make and strategies to adjust. But the key is this: the problems are fixable, and the strengths remain intact.

As long as the fundamentals stay strong, uncertainty becomes an opportunity — not a warning sign.

For long-term investors, these are the moments that matter. Not when everything is green. Not when optimism is high. But when a high-quality brand is quietly resetting while the market looks away.

What other companies do you think are being priced like they’re in trouble even though their long-term fundamentals are still strong?

I always love hearing what’s on your radar.

If you want deeper breakdowns, data, and access to my strategies, you can check out my Surmount page here:

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing written here should be taken as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research, and consult a licensed financial professional if needed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.